Manchester United faced a daunting challenge against the superior performance of Manchester City in the second half, with Erling Haaland contributing two goals and setting up Phil Foden to secure a decisive victory.
Opta, utilizing their advanced supercomputer, conducted an extensive analysis of the remaining fixtures for this season, incorporating factors such as betting odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system to forecast the likely outcomes in the coming months for each team.
Following their recent defeat in the derby, here’s what Opta’s projections suggest for Manchester United in the remainder of the Premier League season.
Considering their current form, Opta’s simulations indicate that Manchester United could potentially finish as low as eighth by the season’s end, a position they currently hold after the first ten games of the campaign.
Notably, the 13-time champions of the Premier League have never experienced a finish lower than seventh in the Premier League era. The last time they ended below this position was during David Moyes’ single season in charge as Sir Alex Ferguson’s successor in the 2013/14 season.
The most drastic fall from grace for Manchester United in the past saw them plummet to 13th. This occurred in the 1989/90 season when they began with a resounding 4-1 victory over reigning champions Arsenal but struggled subsequently, suffering an embarrassing 5-1 defeat against their Manchester rivals. In their recent encounter, Ten Hag’s team endured a three-goal loss.
A silver lining for United that season was their victory in the FA Cup, with Mark Hughes securing a replay in extra time after Crystal Palace twice took the lead in the Wembley final. The only goal in the replay, scored by Lee Martin, may have saved Ferguson from dismissal.
Ten Hag managed to secure the EFL Cup in his first season, but finishing in eighth place, outside of European qualification spots, would likely mark the end of his tenure at Old Trafford, even if another domestic cup is added to the trophy cabinet.
While eighth place may seem relatively generous, it reflects the underwhelming performance United displayed in the second half against City on the recent Sunday. In fact, United were fortunate to concede only three goals, considering City registered the second-highest expected goals (xG) figure of any Premier League team this season.
United has led for only 98 minutes in the current Premier League campaign and did not appear likely to increase that total after City seized an initial lead. Only Sheffield United, Luton, and Bournemouth, three of the current bottom four teams, have held a lead for a shorter duration.
Manchester City, the tormentors of Manchester United in the recent encounter, are on course to achieve a historic feat. They are the undisputed favorites to secure a fourth consecutive Premier League title, a feat unprecedented in English top-flight football.
Despite holding only the third position at the moment, Pep Guardiola’s side is just two points behind the league leaders, Tottenham Hotspur, who have amassed 26 points out of 30 and are expected to slip to fourth place by May according to Opta’s projections.
Interestingly, Arsenal, who share 24 points with City after ten games, are not considered the main challengers to the defending champions; Liverpool holds that title.
