Arsenal delivered a dominant 5-1 victory over Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, sending a strong message to Premier League leaders Liverpool. This emphatic performance proved that the Gunners remain serious contenders in the title race.
It was a crucial statement win for Mikel Arteta’s side, who have long sought to solidify their title credentials. This commanding result all but ended Manchester City’s faint hopes of re-entering the title conversation. However, despite the victory, Arsenal still face an uphill battle in their pursuit of the Premier League crown.
Sunday’s win was one of the most memorable performances of Arteta’s tenure. It demonstrated the team’s potential to go on a winning streak, similar to their surge after defeating Liverpool 3-1 at the same stage last season.
Yet, the gap at the top remains considerable, with Liverpool maintaining a healthy lead. Opta’s supercomputer reflects this reality, indicating that Arsenal’s title chances remain slim even after their impressive win.
According to Opta, Liverpool remain strong favorites to win the Premier League. After their 2-0 triumph over Bournemouth, Liverpool have navigated three challenging away fixtures this year without defeat.
The supercomputer gives them a 90.74% chance of clinching their second Premier League title, projecting them to finish the season with 88.4 points. Arsenal, despite their statement victory, are expected to conclude the campaign with 79.82 points, giving them a modest 9.18% chance of winning the title.
Beyond Arsenal and Liverpool, only three other teams—Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, and Chelsea—have any chance of winning the league, but their odds are negligible. Manchester City, on course for their lowest points total in the Guardiola era, are still projected to finish in the top four alongside surprise contenders Nottingham Forest.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s chances of securing a Champions League spot depend on improving their coefficient ranking, as they are expected to finish fifth.
Elsewhere in the league, Opta predicts little change among mid-table teams. Both Manchester United and Tottenham are projected to endure historically poor seasons, with United expected to secure just 47.65 points—their lowest-ever Premier League total—while Spurs are set to narrowly outperform their 46-point tally from the 2007/08 season. West Ham, under Graham Potter, are predicted to struggle, finishing 15th.
At the bottom of the table, Wolves boosted their survival hopes with a 2-0 win over Aston Villa, reducing their relegation probability to 18.41%. Ipswich, despite losing 2-1 to Southampton, now have better odds of avoiding the drop than Leicester City, who are expected to finish 18th with only a 10.9% chance of survival.
