The ongoing Financial Fair Play (FFP) case involving Manchester City continues to dominate headlines in English football, with fresh speculation reigniting fears of one of the most severe punishments in Premier League history. As of late February 2026, the club remains in limbo awaiting the final verdict from an independent commission on 115 alleged breaches of Premier League financial regulations spanning 2009 to 2018.
City has consistently denied all accusations, but recent expert commentary has amplified discussions about potential sanctions that could dramatically alter the club’s trajectory.
The charges, first announced in February 2023, cover a wide range of alleged violations, including inaccurate financial reporting, failure to provide accurate player and manager contract information, and non-cooperation with investigations. The tribunal hearing concluded in December 2024 after a grueling 12-week process, yet no official findings have been released, leaving fans, rivals, and the broader football community in a state of prolonged uncertainty. This delay has been attributed to the unprecedented complexity and volume of evidence involved in the case.
Recent reports and expert analysis have focused on the scale of possible penalties. Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire has suggested that, if City is found guilty on a significant portion of the charges, a points deduction in the range of 40 to 60 points would be “logical” and consistent with precedents set in other Premier League cases.
For context, Everton and Nottingham Forest faced deductions of 6 and 4 points respectively for single breaches over shorter periods. Given the extended timeframe (nine years) and multiplicity of allegations against City, Maguire argues that multiplying those figures by a factor of ten aligns with the severity.
Such a deduction would be unprecedented in the Premier League. A 60-point penalty applied to City’s current season tally (around 56 points as per recent standings) would plunge them into negative territory, effectively guaranteeing relegation barring an miraculous turnaround. Even in their record-breaking 2017/18 campaign (100 points), a 60-point hit would have left them mid-table at best.
While automatic relegation isn’t guaranteed under Premier League rules (unlike EFL regulations), the impact would be catastrophic: lost revenue from European competitions, sponsor withdrawals, player departures, and a potential exodus of key figures like manager Pep Guardiola.
City supporters remain defiant, pointing to the club’s optimism about exoneration and the lack of a swift verdict as signs of a strong defense. Critics, however, view the prolonged wait as evidence of the case’s gravity. Rival fans from clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, and others have watched closely, as any sanction could reshape the title race and historical records—potentially affecting past titles if retrospective adjustments are considered (though experts deem this unlikely).
The Premier League’s handling of the matter underscores its commitment to financial integrity amid growing scrutiny of state-backed ownership models. Whatever the outcome, the case has already cast a long shadow over one of the most successful eras in English football.
A guilty verdict could mark the end of City’s dominance, while acquittal would vindicate their approach and intensify debates on regulation enforcement. Until the independent commission delivers its ruling—expected soon but with no confirmed timeline—the football world holds its breath for what could be the biggest shake-up in Premier League history.
